Air cargo demand increases and shows first annual growth since February 2022

The IATA (International Air Transport Association) has released data for August regarding global air cargo markets. The figures show that that year-on-year air cargo demand has grown for the first time in 19 months.

Global air cargo demand increased by 1.5% compared to the levels of August 2022. Air cargo capacity also rose, by 12.2% compared to 11.8% in the previous August. The increase in air cargo capacity is mainly due to the 30% year-on-year rise in belly capacity because of airlines ramping up their operations to meet the demand of the peak northern summer travel season.

IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh responded to the release of August’s data by saying, “This is the first year-on-year growth in 19 months, so it is certainly welcome news. But it is off a low 2022 base and market signals are mixed. Looking ahead, while many uncertainties remain…”

Indeed, it is important to consider several factors regarding the current operating environment. While both the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing output (49.4) and new export orders (47.0) saw slight improvement from the previous month, both remained below the critical threshold figure of 50. Essentially, this indicates a continued – albeit slower – annual decline in global manufacturing and exports.

Similarly, global cross-border trade saw a contraction for the fourth consecutive month in July, representing a 3.2% year-on-year decrease and the cooling demand environment.

Meanwhile, inflation was very much a mixed bag in August. In the US, consumer prices increased for the second month in a row. However, in Japan and Europe consumer and producer prices both fell. China – currently fighting ongoing deflationary pressures – saw a rise in consumer prices.

Regional performance during August represents a mixed picture too.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw an increase of 4.9% in August compared to the same month in 2022.  Carriers benefitted from growth in two or its major trade lines: Middle East-Asia and Europe-Asia. Not only that, but the region’s airlines also saw an increase in capacity of 28.5% compared to August 2022.

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 1.4% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes in August 2023. North American carriers saw cargo volumes decrease by 1.2%. However, this still represented an improvement on the figures for July (-5.4%). Capacity increased by 2.7% compared to August of the previous year. European carriers also saw their air cargo volumes decline by in August – 0.2% compared to the same month in 2022. However, as with North America, this was still an improvement in performance against the previous month (-1.0%).

The strongest performance was seen by Latin American carriers in August 2023. There was a 6.2% increase in cargo volumes in August 2022. This was also a significant increase in performance on the previous month (+0.5%). Capacity also rose by 13.7%.

African airlines had the weakest performance in August 2023 was seen by African Airlines. The 4.7% decline in cargo volumes compared to August 2022 was also a significant decrease in performance from July (+2.3%).

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