Red Sea Update: What a Gradual Return to the Suez Canal Means for Global Shipping – and How UK Businesses Should Prepare

The global shipping landscape continues to shift as carriers reassess the risks of transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Although recent developments hint at a cautiously improving security environment, industry analysts agree on one point: a rapid return to pre-crisis shipping patterns is highly unlikely.

While shippers may be eager to see shorter transit times restored, the path back to the Suez Canal will be measured, fragmented and influenced by complex commercial and geopolitical factors. For UK importers and exporters, the months ahead will require careful planning, close monitoring of carrier decisions and, above all, flexible logistics strategies.

Security Improvements Offer Hope – But Not Certainty

Houthi militia signals indicating a halt to attacks on commercial vessels have been met with cautious interest across the industry. But analysts and carriers are united in stressing that words alone will not restore confidence.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, summarised the mood across the sector:
“Details remain sketchy, and you cannot base the safety of crews, ships and cargo on the word of Houthi militia. Carriers need far more assurance than that – and so do insurance companies.”

While a handful of rerouted ships have cautiously tested passage, overall container transits via the Suez Canal have continued to decline throughout 2025. Any reversal of that trend will depend on sustained evidence of security, improved insurance conditions and more consistent maritime risk assessments.

Carrier Strategies Are Far from Aligned

One of the biggest indicators that a rapid return is unlikely is the divide in carrier strategies.

Hapag-Lloyd: No Return Planned

Hapag-Lloyd has confirmed that it has no immediate plans to re-enter the Red Sea.
CEO Rolf Habben Jansen stated:
“For the moment, I don’t see us returning very soon.”

The carrier continues to route vessels around the Cape of Good Hope while focusing on stabilising performance within its Gemini Network.

CMA CGM: Cautious, Limited Transits

CMA CGM has taken a more experimental approach.
The CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin recently became the first ultra-large vessel in almost two years to sail through the region, with sister ships following on restricted rotations.

The company emphasises that these are controlled, case-by-case decisions, not a full-scale return. CFO Ramon Fernandez commented:
“What we anticipate is … the possible reopening of the Suez route during 2026.”

The Result: A Patchwork Market

Because each major line is approaching the situation differently, supply chains will see inconsistent transit times, varied routing decisions and potentially fluctuating capacity deployment for months to come.

A Large-Scale Return Could Disrupt Rates – Not Stabilise Them

A sudden return of ships to the Red Sea would release as much as 2 million TEU of capacity currently tied up on longer Cape of Good Hope routes.

But instead of increasing stability, the market impact could be sharp and disruptive:

  • Spot rates on Asia–North Europe, Mediterranean and US East Coast trades are already down by more than 50% this year.
  • Carriers are edging toward loss-making territory.
  • Global freight rates are predicted to fall by up to -25% in 2026, even without a Suez reopening.

Flooding the market with additional capacity could prompt:

  • accelerated blank sailings
  • increased slow steaming
  • last-minute schedule changes
  • early scrapping of older vessels

For shippers, that means the short-term environment could become more volatile, not less – even if actual sailing times begin to shorten.

What UK Importers and Exporters Need to Know

UK-based businesses should prepare for a transition period characterised by uncertainty, mixed carrier behaviour and shifting rate conditions. Key considerations include:

1. Transit Times Will Differ by Carrier

Some lines may shave days off transit times by trialing Suez. Others will continue routing via the Cape for months.
ETAs may diverge significantly depending on the service chosen.

2. Rate Movements May Be Unpredictable

With carriers fighting to protect margins, sudden capacity changes could trigger short-term volatility, even mid-contract.

3. Equipment Availability Could Be Uneven

Re-routing ships again will require repositioning empty containers, which could create temporary shortages at UK depots.

4. Communication from carriers may lag behind events

Sudden reinstatement of sailings, blanked voyages or service reshuffles may be confirmed on short notice.

5. Contingency Planning Should Remain in Place

Even a mostly restored Suez route will still require time to normalise. Businesses should maintain flexibility around:

  • inventory buffers
  • alternate ports of discharge
  • air freight or multimodal contingency options
  • realistic customer lead times

How Hawley Logistics Is Supporting Customers Through the Uncertainty

At Hawley Logistics, our priority is keeping UK supply chains moving smoothly – regardless of how global shipping conditions evolve.

We are actively:

Monitoring carrier strategies in real time

We’re in daily contact with our partners across major ocean alliances, allowing us to track which services are testing Suez, which remain via the Cape and how schedules are developing.

Providing route comparisons based on actual conditions

We assess transit times, capacity availability and reliability across carriers so customers can choose the most secure and cost-effective solutions.

Delivering accurate, realistic ETAs

Our team checks multiple data points, not just published schedules, to provide the most reliable arrival forecasts.

Advising on contingency planning

From diversifying carriers to exploring alternate European ports or emergency air/sea options, we help customers prepare for disruption rather than react to it.

Supporting UK importers with customs, port selection and inventory strategies

We offer guidance on how routing changes may affect UK entry points, storage requirements and delivery timelines – especially for time-sensitive or high-value goods.

Helping exporters maintain reliable outbound capacity

With some markets facing longer equipment shortages, we proactively secure space and advise on optimal service choices.

Our mission remains simple: to give businesses clarity, reliability and confidence – even when the global picture is uncertain.

A Slow Return, and a Need for Careful Planning

The shipping industry’s return to the Suez Canal will not be a single event but a gradual, staggered process influenced by risk assessments, insurance requirements and carrier strategy.
 For UK importers and exporters, this means preparing for months of mixed routing, fluctuating market conditions and operational unpredictability.

But with proactive planning, expert guidance and real-time insight, businesses can navigate this transition smoothly.

Hawley Logistics will continue to update customers as conditions evolve – ensuring that every supply chain remains resilient, informed and ready for the next stage of global shipping recovery.