Short-Term Truce, Long-Term Trouble: What UK Shippers Should Know About 2026 Freight Rates

The 12-month truce in the ongoing US–China trade war, announced this week, is offering temporary relief but little optimism for the global ocean freight market. Analysts warn that while the agreement – featuring a 10% reduction on fentanyl-related tariffs and the suspension of port fees may ease some tensions, it will not prevent further declines in container shipping rates in 2026.

According to the latest data from Xeneta, spot rates from China to the US West Coast fell 59% year on year at the end of October, down to USD 2,147 per FEU, while East Coast routes saw a 48% drop, reaching USD 3,044 per FEU. Container demand on Trans-Pacific trades has followed suit, declining 13% year-on-year in August.

“The US–China truce is a positive development, but it will not suddenly breathe life into weakening ocean container shipping demand,”
 said Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta.
 “Tariffs remain high, and US shippers will spend the first half of 2026 drawing down on inventory built up earlier this year to safeguard supply chains.”

Xeneta’s 2026 forecast paints a subdued picture, with global average spot rates expected to fall up to 25% and long-term contract rates dropping by as much as 10%. This would place average long-term rates 20% below December 2023 levels, before the Red Sea conflict intensified disruptions to international shipping.

Temporary Relief, Lingering Uncertainty

While the removal of port fees is a welcome development—particularly for carriers previously burdened by multimillion-dollar charges—overcapacity remains a significant concern. New vessels entering service are expected to outpace global demand throughout 2026, putting downward pressure on rates and margins.

“Overcapacity of container shipping supply will be rampant in 2026 against subdued demand,”
Stausbøll continued.
 “Lower tariffs will not bring about a change in fortunes for carriers on critical Trans-Pacific trades.”

The truce, which lasts only 12 months, stops short of a full trade deal. That leaves both shippers and carriers in limbo, with no guarantees of stability beyond 2026. As geopolitical uncertainty continues to shape global trade policy, supply chains remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in tariffs, fees, and routes.

What This Means for UK-Based Shippers

For UK importers and exporters, the US–China trade truce offers few tangible benefits, and several indirect risks. As global carriers reposition capacity in response to weakened Trans-Pacific demand, Europe–Asia and North Atlantic routes may experience rate fluctuations, longer lead times, and tighter vessel availability.

The combination of falling spot rates and persistent supply chain volatility could create short-term opportunities for cost savings, but also long-term instability in contract pricing and scheduling reliability.

UK businesses sourcing goods from Asia or exporting to the US should prepare for continued unpredictability, even as rates fall, disruptions can quickly offset savings – whether due to port congestion, vessel repositioning, or sudden policy reversals once the truce expires.

Protecting Your Business in a Volatile Freight Market

To safeguard against a turbulent 2026, UK shippers can take several proactive steps:

  1. Diversify supply chains – Avoid overreliance on a single region such as China. Explore sourcing alternatives in Southeast Asia, India, or nearshoring options within Europe.
  2. Mix contract types – Balance long-term contracts with short-term spot rate agreements to take advantage of market dips while ensuring stability for core shipments.
  3. Use freight visibility tools – Real-time tracking and predictive analytics can help businesses anticipate delays and make faster routing decisions.
  4. Partner with experienced freight forwarders – Working with logistics partners such as Hawley Logistics ensures access to flexible routing, competitive rates, and strategic support amid uncertainty.
  5. Monitor policy developments closely – The 12-month truce could end abruptly, and preparation for potential tariff reinstatements or new trade barriers is essential.

Navigating 2026 with Confidence

While the US–China trade truce may offer a temporary easing of geopolitical tension, its short-term nature underscores the ongoing fragility of global trade. For businesses in the UK reliant on international shipping, success in 2026 will depend on strategic logistics planning, agility, and strong partnerships.

At Hawley Logistics, we continue to help our clients navigate complex global markets – ensuring their cargo moves efficiently, cost-effectively, and with minimal disruption, regardless of external pressures.