The ongoing situation in the Middle East has entered a new and more complex phase, with recent military developments intensifying pressure on already strained global freight networks. See our previous report on the situation here.
From naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz to renewed attacks on commercial vessels and rising oil prices, the latest escalation is not just disruption – it’s reshaping how cargo moves between Asia, Europe and beyond in real time.
For UK importers and exporters, the message is clear: this is no longer a short-term shock, but a rapidly evolving logistics challenge.
A New Phase of Disruption: What’s Changed?
Recent developments signal a decisive shift from short-term instability to sustained operational risk across global freight networks.
The introduction of a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ports – alongside continued tensions despite a temporary ceasefire – has further destabilised the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor responsible for a significant share of global oil and container traffic.
While the waterway has not been formally closed to all commercial shipping, the operating environment has fundamentally changed. For carriers, the issue is no longer just whether transit is possible, but whether it is commercially and operationally viable.
Several critical factors are shaping this new phase:
- Escalating security threats
Multiple incidents involving commercial vessels – including reported strikes, near-misses and drone activity – have heightened risk levels across the Persian Gulf. Even isolated events are enough to trigger widespread caution across carrier networks and insurers. - Insurance and liability pressures
War-risk premiums and hull insurance costs have surged, in some cases making transit through the region prohibitively expensive. Insurers are continuously reassessing exposure, and in certain scenarios, cover is either restricted or withdrawn entirely without significant premium increases. - Carrier hesitation and fragmented routing decisions
Some operators have cautiously resumed limited transits under tightly controlled conditions, while others continue to divert vessels away from the region altogether. This lack of uniformity is creating a fragmented network, where schedule reliability is increasingly difficult to maintain. - Geopolitical influence on operations
Routing decisions are no longer driven solely by efficiency or cost. Political alignment, security guarantees and regional negotiations are playing a growing role in determining which vessels move – and how.
At the same time, energy markets are reacting sharply to the uncertainty.
Brent crude prices have surged back above $100 per barrel, reversing the temporary easing seen following ceasefire discussions. This has immediate consequences for global shipping:
- Rising bunker fuel costs, increasing operating expenses for ocean carriers
- Delayed relief on emergency surcharges, with carriers unlikely to roll back additional charges in the near term
- Knock-on effects across all modes, including higher jet fuel prices impacting air freight
In short, even without a full closure of the Strait, the perceived risk alone is enough to disrupt global freight flows – and that disruption is now being felt across both cost structures and network reliability.
Ocean Freight: Capacity Constraints and Cost Pressure Persist
Ocean networks remain heavily disrupted, but the dynamics are evolving.
Rather than a complete standstill, we are now seeing a fragmented and inconsistent flow of vessels, with some carriers cautiously testing routes through the region while others continue to divert entirely.
This has created:
- Unpredictable transit patterns – some vessels transit, others reroute, making schedules less reliable
- Ongoing capacity imbalances – equipment shortages and displaced vessels continue to impact global rotations
- Sustained cost inflation – fuel volatility and emergency surcharges remain firmly in place
Even where movement is possible, it is rarely efficient. Many services are still operating outside normal network structures, contributing to congestion at alternative hubs and extended end to end transit times.
Air Freight: Stabilising, But at a Cost
Air freight has shown signs of partial recovery – but not without trade-offs.
Key Middle Eastern hubs have resumed limited operations, and some flight schedules are stabilising. However, this “recovery” is constrained by ongoing airspace restrictions, regulatory controls and elevated fuel costs.
The result is a market that is functioning, but far from normal:
- Fuel and war-risk surcharges are rising, driven by sustained high jet fuel prices
- Flight paths remain longer and less efficient, increasing both cost and transit time
- Capacity is still constrained, particularly on key Asia–Europe corridors
In practical terms, this means air freight is available, but often at a premium – making it less viable as a fallback option for many shippers.
The Rise of Multimodal Workarounds
One of the most notable shifts in recent weeks has been the growing reliance on multimodal solutions.
With both ocean and air freight under pressure, logistics providers are increasingly combining transport modes, such as sea-air options, to strike a balance between cost and speed.
These alternatives are gaining traction because they offer:
- Faster transit than traditional ocean routes
- Lower cost than full air freight
- Greater flexibility in uncertain conditions
For UK businesses, this signals an important shift: adaptability is becoming just as critical as efficiency.
However, while multimodal solutions offer clear advantages, they also introduce additional layers of complexity that must be carefully managed. Coordinating multiple transport legs – often across different regions, carriers and regulatory environments – increases the risk of delays at transfer points, particularly where congestion or customs clearance is involved.
Shipments may require additional documentation, especially when moving between sea, road and air legs across different jurisdictions, and lead times can still be impacted if one segment of the journey is disrupted. There is also less standardisation compared to traditional single-mode transport, meaning planning, visibility and communication become even more critical.
In practice, this means businesses need a more hands-on, strategic approach — working closely with logistics partners to ensure smooth coordination, minimise risk at transition points and maintain full visibility throughout the journey.
What This Means for UK Businesses Now
For UK importers and exporters, the latest escalation adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile trading environment.
The key challenge is not just disruption – but unpredictability.
- Continued Cost Instability
Freight costs remain highly sensitive to external factors, particularly fuel prices and surcharges. With oil markets reacting to geopolitical developments almost in real time, businesses should expect:
- Ongoing bunker adjustment factors (BAFs) on ocean freight
- Sustained or increasing air freight fuel and war-risk surcharges
- Short-notice rate changes, particularly on key Asia–Europe lanes
This makes accurate cost forecasting increasingly difficult, especially for businesses operating on tight margins or fixed-price contracts.
- Longer and Less Reliable Lead Times
Even where routes remain open, transit reliability has been significantly reduced.
- Ocean freight schedules are being impacted by rerouting, congestion at alternative hubs and inconsistent carrier strategies
- Air freight is facing extended flight paths, payload restrictions and limited capacity on key routes
For UK supply chains, this can translate into:
- Delays in inbound goods from Asia and the Middle East
- Increased risk of stock shortages or production slowdowns
- Greater pressure on inventory planning and warehousing capacity
- Increased Operational Complexity
Supply chains are becoming more dynamic and more demanding to manage.
Businesses must now navigate:
- Changing port rotations and transshipment hubs
- Additional customs considerations linked to alternative routings
- Greater reliance on feeder services, road freight and multimodal solutions
This adds administrative burden and increases the risk of disruption at multiple points along the supply chain.
- Reduced Flexibility in Mode Switching
Traditionally, air freight has served as a fallback when ocean freight is disrupted. However, current conditions are limiting that option:
- Air freight capacity remains constrained in key regions
- Rates are significantly elevated compared to historical norms
- Surcharges and routing inefficiencies reduce speed advantages
As a result, businesses may need to explore blended or multimodal solutions rather than relying on a single mode of transport.
- Strategic Pressure on Supply Chain Planning
Perhaps the most significant impact is longer-term.
UK businesses are increasingly being forced to rethink:
- Supplier diversification and sourcing strategies
- Safety stock levels and inventory buffers
- Risk exposure to key global chokepoints
What was once considered contingency planning is quickly becoming standard operating procedure.
Staying Ahead in a Rapidly Changing Landscape
In this environment, reactive logistics is no longer enough. Businesses that stay ahead will be those that:
- Build flexibility into their supply chains
- Explore alternative routing and modal options
- Work closely with logistics partners to monitor real-time changes
The situation continues to evolve daily and with it, the global freight landscape.
A Prolonged Period of Uncertainty
The latest escalation in the Middle East highlights a critical shift in global logistics: disruption is no longer defined by isolated events, but by ongoing instability.
Even without a complete shutdown of key trade routes, the combination of security risks, rising energy costs and fragmented carrier responses is enough to:
- Sustain upward pressure on freight rates
- Reduce reliability across both ocean and air networks
- Increase complexity for businesses managing international supply chains
For UK importers and exporters, the focus must now move beyond short-term reaction toward long-term resilience.
In a landscape where conditions can change rapidly, the ability to adapt – through flexible routing, informed decision-making and strong logistics partnerships – will be key to maintaining continuity and competitiveness.
How Hawley Logistics Can Help
At Hawley Logistics, we support UK businesses in navigating disruption with confidence.
Our team provides:
- Dynamic routing strategies to adapt to changing risk conditions
- Multimodal solutions to balance cost, speed and reliability
- Real-time shipment visibility across global networks
- Expert guidance on customs, compliance and contingency planning
If your supply chain is being impacted by ongoing global events, we’re here to help you stay agile and in control.
