Chinese New Year 2026 begins tomorrow, Tuesday 17 February. While attention has largely focused on the pre-holiday congestion and overbooking at origin, the more complex phase is now beginning: the restart.

For UK importers and exporters trading with Asia, the real risk window is not the holiday week itself – it is the four to six weeks that follow.

The shutdown is immediate. The recovery is not.

The official public holiday in China runs from 17–23 February. In reality, much of the manufacturing slowdown began weeks ago, with factories reducing output as labour returned home.

Now the system enters what can be described as a structural reset:

  • Manufacturing restarts unevenly
  • Trucking capacity returns gradually
  • Empty container imbalances persist
  • Carriers adjust sailings to manage rate stability

Production does not simply “switch back on” on 24 February. Many factories will not reach full output again until early or even mid-March. Inland logistics networks typically take one to two weeks to normalise.

For UK supply chains operating on just in time or lean inventory models, this lag creates real exposure.

Blank sailings will shape the next phase

Ocean carriers are expected to implement increased blank sailings (cancelled voyages) through late February and early March to rebalance vessel capacity.

While overall global volumes remain softer than in previous peak years, carriers are actively managing supply to protect rate levels. This means:

  • Fewer weekly sailings on Asia–Europe services
  • Reduced last-minute booking availability
  • Greater likelihood of rolled cargo, even post-holiday

Confirmed bookings do not automatically equate to shipment movement during this period. Space is prioritised for contracted volumes and long-term commitments.

Container and equipment shortages remain uneven

During the pre-CNY rush, empty container stocks were heavily repositioned. In the restart phase, imbalances are common.

Key pressure points include:

  • Shortages of 40’ high cube equipment
  • Delays in empty container release (EIR)
  • Restricted gate access at certain terminals
  • Reduced domestic trucking capacity

These constraints often surface without formal notice. Ports may be operational, but execution reliability becomes inconsistent.

Regional ripple effects beyond China

Although mainland China is the primary focus, the disruption extends across the region.

Manufacturing hubs in South Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia also experience labour shortages and staggered restarts. For UK businesses sourcing from Vietnam, Thailand or Malaysia as part of a China+1 strategy, disruption risk is not eliminated – only redistributed.

Diversification reduces dependency. It does not remove seasonality.

What this means specifically for UK importers

For UK-based businesses importing from Asia, the main risks over the next six weeks include:

1. Extended lead times into UK ports

Blank sailings combined with slow factory restart can create arrival gaps at major UK gateways such as Felixstowe, Southampton and London Gateway.

This can distort warehouse planning and onward distribution scheduling.

2. Increased short-term rate volatility

Freight rates into China from Europe have recently shown extreme variability – for example:

  • Zeebrugge to Qingdao from $28
  • Rotterdam to Zhoushan from $690
  • Lisbon to Shenzhen from $1,300

Such disparities reflect tactical pricing rather than stable market fundamentals. Asia–Europe headhaul rates can respond quickly once demand consolidates post-holiday.

Spot exposure during this period carries risk.

3. Inventory compression in March

If cargo missed pre-holiday sailings and factories resume slowly, March arrivals into the UK may bunch into narrow windows, placing pressure on:

  • Customs clearance
  • Warehouse capacity
  • Haulage availability
  • Cash flow tied up in delayed stock

And for UK exporters to Asia

UK exporters shipping to China or the wider Asia-Pacific region face a different but equally important set of challenges:

  • Slower buyer response times during the holiday period
  • Reduced inland delivery capability on arrival
  • Delayed customs processing
  • Potential storage and demurrage exposure if cargo arrives before receivers are fully operational

Even where vessels sail on schedule, discharge-side coordination becomes critical.

The most underestimated risk: the backlog effect

The most misleading phase of Lunar New Year disruption is the immediate post-holiday window.

Cargo that failed to move in late January and early February does not disappear. It accumulates.

As factories reopen, there is a surge of:

  • Catch-up production
  • Backlogged export orders
  • Rebooked rolled shipments

This creates a second pressure wave – often peaking two to three weeks after the official holiday ends.

For 2026, with the holiday falling relatively late (17 February), that pressure wave is likely to materialise in early to mid-March.

Strategic priorities for UK supply chains

The focus now shifts from speed to control.

UK businesses should prioritise:

Clear shipment visibility
 Real-time tracking and proactive communication reduce escalation risk.

Realistic supplier restart dates
 Official holiday dates do not equal operational readiness. Confirm factory staffing levels directly.

Early space confirmation for March sailings
 Do not assume capacity will be freely available once factories resume.

Flexible UK warehousing and haulage planning
 Prepare for uneven arrival patterns rather than smooth weekly flow.

Cash flow forecasting aligned to revised ETAs
 Arrival volatility impacts duty payments, VAT timing and working capital.

The Year of the Fire Horse – volatility with momentum

In Chinese zodiac tradition, the Fire Horse symbolises intensity and movement. From a logistics perspective, 2026 is already reflecting that energy.

Pre-holiday reliability has been strained. Post-holiday recovery will be uneven. Carrier capacity management through blank sailings will amplify variability rather than smooth it.

The disruption window is not closing tomorrow – it is evolving.

If you are importing from or exporting to Asia in Q1 or early Q2, now is the time to reassess lead times, booking strategies and inventory buffers.

For tailored advice on managing post-CNY exposure across Asia–UK trade lanes, contact Hawley Logistics to review routing options, capacity strategy and risk mitigation planning.