As 2026 approaches, the global sea freight market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty. Container spot rates are edging higher across major deep-sea trades as carriers push through General Rate Increases (GRIs), FAK surcharges and tactical capacity management. At the same time, economic, geopolitical and regulatory pressures are creating a fragile backdrop that could see market conditions shift quickly and unevenly.

For UK importers and exporters, the months surrounding Chinese New Year (CNY) 2026 will be critical. Short-term disruption is almost guaranteed, but the wider outlook points to a year defined less by stability and more by managed turbulence.

Container Rates Firm as Carriers Manage Capacity

On the Asia-Europe trades, recent carrier-driven price increases have pushed container spot rates back onto an upward trajectory. Week-on-week gains are being recorded on Shanghai-North Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean routes, with mid single to low double digit percentage increases.

Far East-North Europe currently shows a rare combination of solid demand and active capacity management. Carriers are adding vessels while still maintaining upward pressure on rates. On the Mediterranean leg, rate increases have been more pronounced, largely due to deliberate capacity reductions rather than underlying demand growth.

Across the Pacific, fresh GRIs implemented from early December have lifted spot rates on Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York. However, with capacity still relatively plentiful and some services under-utilised, these higher levels may prove difficult to sustain into January without further blank sailings.

Blank Sailings, Weather Disruption and Congestion Risks

Blank sailings remain a primary lever for carriers managing the balance between supply and demand. Over the five-week period from early December to mid-January, cancellations account for approximately 9% of scheduled global deep-sea departures, concentrated on:

  • Transpacific eastbound
  • Transatlantic westbound
  • Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trades

December alone is seeing dozens of cancellations, effectively tightening available capacity even before the full pre-CNY surge begins. Early January schedules already indicate further blanks, pointing to a volatile start to 2026.

Weather disruption has added further pressure. Severe storms across Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia have slowed terminal operations and delayed vessels, particularly at hubs such as Colombo. Missed berthing windows and vessel bunching are now feeding into wider schedule disruption across east–west loops.

For UK importers, this increases the risk of delayed inbound raw materials, finished goods and seasonal stock. For exporters, unreliable sailing schedules can impact delivery commitments and customer confidence in overseas markets.

How Chinese New Year 2026 Will Impact UK Supply Chains

Chinese New Year 2026 is expected to tighten Asia–Europe capacity, extend lead times and increase the likelihood of rolled cargo from early January through at least mid-March. The familiar pattern is already emerging:

  • Late January to early February: Factories begin slowing production two to three weeks before the holiday. Bookings are pulled forward, sailings fill quickly and some cargo fails to load.
  • Mid-February to early March: Factory closures or reduced operations lead to post-holiday backlogs. Carriers implement additional blank sailings to match lower export volumes.
  • Mid-March onwards: Gradual normalisation, with residual congestion as ports and hinterlands clear accumulated cargo.

For UK businesses, this creates a potential six-to-eight-week disruption window, increasing the risk of inventory gaps around key seasonal trading periods such as Valentine’s Day, Easter and spring product launches.

A More Uncertain Economic and Trade Backdrop

Beyond CNY disruption, the wider shipping environment in 2026 is becoming increasingly complex. Global GDP growth is expected to slow compared with 2025, reducing momentum across many major economies. This softer demand outlook is compounded by downside risks linked to financial market volatility.

Geopolitics also remains a major wildcard. A partial or full resumption of Red Sea transits would significantly shorten Asia–Europe voyages, reducing tonne-mile demand and potentially loosening capacity very quickly. While visibility on this remains limited, even incremental changes could have an outsized impact on freight rates and service reliability.

At the same time, ongoing tariff disputes and protectionist trade policies are reshaping global trade flows. Expectations for container volume growth in both 2025 and 2026 have already been moderated, and the medium-term impact of trade barriers is likely to remain negative overall.

For UK importers and exporters, this may mean:

  • Reduced demand for certain high-margin or politically sensitive products
  • Shifts in sourcing strategies and manufacturing locations
  • Emerging trade lanes that offset weaker traditional routes

Capacity Growth and Shifting Market Power

Despite softer demand expectations, vessel supply continues to grow. Shipping order books have increased moderately across multiple segments, while vessel scrappage remains low. This points to a continued expansion of global fleet capacity through 2026.

Current forecasts indicate:

  • Around 3% growth in global container shipping demand in 2026
  • Approximately 3.6% fleet growth, on top of existing overcapacity

Once peak seasonal disruptions subside, this imbalance is expected to put downward pressure on container freight rates, shifting conditions more in favour of shippers later in the year. However, this advantage is unlikely to be smooth or consistent, particularly if carriers continue to manage supply aggressively through blank sailings and alliance coordination.

Diverging Performance Across Shipping Segments

Market conditions are also expected to diverge by sector:

  • Container shipping: Likely to weaken in 2026 as capacity growth outpaces demand, reducing freight rates and profitability.
  • Crude tanker shipping: Expected to remain strong, supported by end-demand growth and longer tonne-mile routes.
  • Dry bulk and product tankers: Stable but subdued fundamentals year on year.
  • LNG carriers and car carriers: Forecast to remain broadly stable with lower volatility.

For UK businesses reliant on containerised trade, this reinforces the importance of targeted planning rather than relying on broad market trends.

Regulation, Net Zero and Cost Pressures

Looking further ahead, regulatory change is another factor shaping medium-term costs. The International Maritime Organisation’s proposed Net Zero framework, still awaiting final approval, is expected to increase cost pressure on shipping lines.

The extent to which these costs are absorbed by carriers or passed on to shippers remains uncertain. For UK importers and exporters, this adds another layer of pricing risk to an already volatile market environment.

How UK Importers and Exporters Can Prepare

Against this backdrop of short-term disruption and longer-term uncertainty, proactive planning is essential. Hawley Logistics recommends that UK businesses consider:

  • Pulling orders forward to ship in December or early January where possible
  • Securing space early, particularly for time-sensitive or high-value goods
  • Building targeted safety stock in UK distribution centres to cover a four-to-six-week disruption window
  • Maintaining close coordination on sailing schedules, blank sailings and potential surcharges

Hawley Logistics is actively monitoring December and January blank sailings, Chinese New Year demand patterns and alternative routing options to secure capacity, optimise transit times and minimise disruption for UK clients.

Navigating a Year Defined by Turbulence

The outlook for sea freight in 2026 is not one of stability, but of constant adjustment. Short-term rate volatility, shifting capacity, geopolitical risk and regulatory change will all play a role in shaping outcomes.

For UK importers and exporters, working with an experienced logistics partner is key. By sharing forecasts, identifying critical SKUs and planning early, businesses can reduce exposure to last-minute surcharges, protect service levels and maintain supply chain resilience – even when the market changes direction quickly.

Contact Hawley Logistics to arrange a strategic review of your shipping patterns and ensure your supply chain is prepared for Chinese New Year 2026 and the turbulent months beyond.