UK Importers and Exporters Face Short-Term Disruptions

Maersk Line has taken a notable step toward stabilising global container shipping by reinstating a fully regular service through the Suez Canal. The Danish carrier’s Middle East–US East Coast Loop (MECL) resumed eastbound and westbound sailings earlier this month, reflecting cautious confidence that security conditions in the Red Sea are improving after months of disruption.

However, the broader picture for the Suez Canal remains challenging. Traffic through early 2026 continues to lag significantly behind pre-crisis levels, with crossings roughly 60% below 2023 figures, according to BIMCO and UNCTAD data. While some smaller vessels have returned, mega container ships (18,000+ TEU) have largely avoided the canal for over 20 months, with major carriers still rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. This has led to higher shipping costs, longer transit times, and a significant revenue drop for Egypt.

Key Traffic Trends (2025–2026)

  • Persistent Declines: Daily transits remain about 60% lower than the same period in 2023.
  • Uneven Recovery: Smaller vessels are gradually returning, but large container ships are still largely avoiding the canal.
  • Operational Shifts: Most carriers continue using the Cape of Good Hope route, adding both time and cost to voyages.

Suez Canal Operational Outlook – February 2026

  • Gradual Return, Not Immediate Shift: Carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM are reintroducing Suez sailings on a loop-by-loop basis, but most early 2026 traffic still takes the longer Cape route.
  • New Disruption Scenario: The phased return is expected to cause temporary congestion at major European ports, including Rotterdam and Antwerp, as vessels converge.
  • Transition Timing: Mid-February, post-Lunar New Year, is projected as the most likely window for a broader reintroduction of services, to minimise disruption.
  • Revenue Rebound: The Suez Canal Authority anticipates a return to higher revenues in 2026, targeting around $10 billion annually, supported by incentives for specific vessel types.

Global Shipping & Freight Market Implications

  • Freight Rate Volatility: Shorter transit times via Suez may ease rates over the longer term, but initial congestion could trigger temporary spikes on certain lanes.
  • Overcapacity Challenges: The combination of returning ships, increased global fleet capacity (+4%), and lower-than-expected demand suggests 2026 could see oversupply pressures for carriers.
  • Improved Efficiency: The canal’s reopening reduces fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions, helping mitigate costs from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), now covering 100% of emissions.

Key Risks

  • Fragile Security: Any resurgence in Houthi attacks could force carriers back to the Cape route.
  • Operational Bottlenecks: Container shortages in Asia are possible as equipment may be delayed in congested European ports, potentially 8–9 weeks after initial Suez traffic resumes.

Implications for UK-Based Importers and Exporters

For UK businesses, the Suez situation is more than a distant concern – it directly impacts supply chains, costs, and planning.

  1. Delays and Cost Pressures: Short-term congestion and ongoing security risks may extend delivery times and increase shipping costs. Businesses should plan for potential delays in both imports and exports.
  2. Contingency Planning: Diversifying suppliers, pre-booking alternative routes, and increasing buffer stock can mitigate supply chain risk.
  3. Freight Rate Awareness: Temporary spikes in specific shipping lanes mean that budgeting and contracts need careful attention.
  4. Inventory Management: Companies handling perishable or time-sensitive goods may need to coordinate closely with logistics partners to avoid disruptions.

Looking Ahead

As of February 2026, the Suez Canal is transitioning from “closed” to a phased, cautious return, signalling a potential easing of freight costs later in the year. However, UK importers and exporters should prepare for a turbulent transition period, monitoring shipping schedules closely and remaining flexible to adapt to congestion, route changes, or security issues.

The Hawley Logistics team continues to track developments and provide tailored guidance to UK businesses navigating this complex and evolving shipping environment.

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