Global freight has always been affected by factors outside a business’s control. Weather, fuel prices, political events and changes in demand can all influence the cost and timing of moving goods around the world. What has changed is how many of these pressures are now happening at the same time.
Weather disruption across Asia, congestion at major ports, volatile fuel costs, geopolitical tensions, changing trade policies and even cybersecurity threats are all creating challenges for international supply chains. For UK importers and exporters, this can make freight costs harder to predict and delivery schedules more difficult to rely on.
Recent data illustrates just how much pressure shipping networks are under. Container vessel schedule reliability across Asia fell to 32.3% in August 2026, with late vessels arriving an average of 7.28 days behind schedule. China was particularly affected, with schedule reliability falling to 23.9%, while Shanghai and Ningbo recorded reliability of just 12.2% and 16.9% respectively. So, what is driving the disruption, and what does it mean for UK businesses?
Weather continues to disrupt major shipping routes
Extreme weather remains one of the most visible causes of freight disruption. Typhoons and severe weather across Asia have affected major container ports, including Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian. When vessels cannot safely enter or leave a port, even a relatively short period of disruption can have consequences that continue long after the weather has improved. Containers build up in terminals, vessels miss their berthing windows and subsequent sailings can be pushed back.
The problem is that shipping networks operate as a chain. A vessel delayed in China may subsequently arrive late in Singapore, miss a European port rotation and ultimately affect cargo destined for the UK. This is why recovering port operations do not necessarily mean that shipping schedules immediately return to normal. And extreme weather is not limited to Asia. Flooding, storms, drought and extreme temperatures can affect ports, roads, railways and inland waterways around the world.
For businesses relying on international freight, weather-related disruption is increasingly something that needs to be factored into contingency planning rather than treated as an exceptional event.
Port congestion is creating a knock-on effect
Port congestion and vessel reliability are closely connected. When too many vessels arrive at the same time, terminals can struggle to handle the volume of containers. Yard space becomes constrained, vessels wait longer for berths and cargo takes longer to move through the port.
Recent congestion across Asian ports has had a significant impact on schedule reliability. In July, global schedule reliability fell to 56.4%, with the average delay for late vessels reaching more than six days. By August, Asian reliability had fallen further. Even when congestion begins to ease, there can be a considerable backlog to work through. For importers, that means a vessel’s published transit time should increasingly be viewed as a planning guide rather than an absolute guarantee.
Container availability can become a problem too
It is easy to think of shipping capacity simply in terms of the number of vessels available. In reality, the availability of the right container in the right place also matters. When shipping routes are disrupted or vessels spend longer travelling, empty containers can end up in the wrong locations. Some ports may have a surplus while exporters elsewhere struggle to secure the equipment they need.
This can lead to booking delays, changes to sailing arrangements and additional costs. For businesses that regularly export goods, container availability can therefore be just as important as vessel availability.
Blank sailings can add another layer of uncertainty
Shipping lines also adjust their schedules in response to changes in demand, congestion and operational conditions. One consequence can be a blank sailing, where a scheduled sailing is cancelled or a port call is omitted. When this happens, cargo may need to be rolled onto another vessel. That can mean waiting several additional days, or longer if the next available sailing is already heavily booked.
There is another complication at the moment: delayed vessels can bunch together. As congestion clears, several ships that were previously delayed can arrive within a relatively short period, creating a temporary surge in capacity and putting further pressure on ports and schedules. For UK importers, this makes it particularly important to monitor the shipment rather than simply relying on the original booking confirmation.
Fuel costs continue to influence freight prices
Fuel is another major factor affecting the cost of international transport. Shipping lines have to account for marine fuel prices when setting freight rates and surcharges, while changes in energy costs also affect road haulage, air freight and other parts of the logistics chain.
The situation in the Middle East has added another layer of volatility. Although oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered significantly from earlier disruption, refined fuel supplies remain more constrained and freight and insurance costs remain elevated.
That matters to UK businesses because fuel costs can filter through the entire supply chain. The cost of transporting a container to a UK port is only one part of the picture. There can also be additional costs associated with fuel surcharges, inland transport and alternative arrangements if a shipment has to be rerouted.
Geopolitical tensions are changing shipping routes
The global shipping network is also being reshaped by geopolitical events. The Red Sea and Suez Canal remain particularly important examples. Some carriers are cautiously increasing services through the region, but the return is not simply a case of switching back to the routes used before the disruption.
Shipping lines need to consider security, insurance, fuel consumption, vessel availability and the reliability of the route before making those decisions.
This means different carriers may take different approaches to the same destination. For a UK importer, that can affect both the cost and expected transit time of a shipment. It also demonstrates why the cheapest route on paper is not necessarily the most appropriate route in practice.
Trade policies and tariffs can change the cost of importing
Freight costs are only one part of the cost of international trade. Tariffs, customs requirements, trade agreements and changes to import regulations can all affect the final landed cost of goods.
The UK tariff system continues to change, with updated tariff measures and quotas coming into force during 2026. For example, the latest UK Tariff version came into force on 1 October 2026, while new steel tariff quotas also took effect during October. The UK’s customs rules are also continuing to evolve. The Government has announced reforms to low-value imports, including the removal of the £135 customs duty relief and new customs arrangements involving additional data, payment and compliance requirements.
For businesses importing or exporting, this makes accurate customs information increasingly important. Commodity codes, country of origin, customs value, duty and VAT all need to be considered alongside the physical movement of the goods. A shipment can arrive at the UK port on time but still be delayed if the necessary customs information is incomplete or incorrect.
The journey does not end when the ship reaches the UK
Another potential source of disruption is often overlooked: inland transport. Getting a container to a UK port is only part of the journey.
Once the vessel arrives, the goods still need to clear customs, leave the port and reach their final destination. Road haulage availability, driver capacity, warehouse space, delivery slots and traffic conditions can all affect the final delivery. This means that a delay of several days at sea can create a much bigger problem if it coincides with limited haulage availability or a critical production deadline.
For exporters, the same applies in reverse. A business may have its goods ready to leave the UK, but if the vessel, container equipment or onward transport is unavailable, the shipment can still be delayed.
Cybersecurity is becoming a freight issue too
Perhaps one of the less obvious risks facing the logistics industry is cybersecurity. Modern ports are increasingly digital and interconnected. Cargo booking systems, terminal operating systems, automated equipment, tracking platforms, customs systems and communications networks all play a role in moving goods around the world.
That creates efficiency, but it also creates vulnerabilities.
A cyberattack or major IT outage affecting a port, shipping line, logistics provider or other critical part of the supply chain could prevent cargo from being processed or moved even when the physical infrastructure is perfectly operational. Research published in October 2026 highlights the growing cybersecurity risks associated with smart ports and their interconnected cyber-physical systems.
Cybersecurity therefore needs to be considered as part of wider supply chain resilience. For businesses, that means understanding not only where their goods are, but also how the information and systems supporting those shipments are being managed.
What does all of this mean for UK importers?
For UK importers, the biggest challenge is uncertainty. A shipment can be affected by several different factors before it reaches the UK. A typhoon can delay a vessel in Asia. Congestion can then cause it to miss its next port. A blank sailing could push the cargo onto another vessel. Fuel costs or a route change could increase the price, and once the container reaches the UK, customs or haulage issues could create further delays.
None of these problems necessarily means that the goods will not arrive, but they do mean businesses need to allow more flexibility when planning. This is particularly important for businesses importing seasonal stock, components for manufacturing, products with fixed delivery deadlines or goods that are being supplied directly to customers.
Holding additional stock, ordering earlier, considering alternative routes and having contingency options available can all help reduce the commercial impact of disruption.
And what about UK exporters?
The same pressures apply in the other direction. UK manufacturers and suppliers exporting overseas can face difficulties securing containers, finding suitable sailings and providing accurate delivery estimates to customers.
A delay can also have a knock-on effect further down the supply chain. If a UK manufacturer cannot get its goods onto a planned vessel, its overseas customer may have to delay production, wait for stock or make alternative arrangements.
For businesses competing internationally, reliable logistics can therefore be an important part of customer service. Being able to identify a potential problem early, and find an alternative solution, can be far more valuable than simply finding the cheapest freight rate.
What can businesses do to make their supply chains more resilient?
Businesses cannot control global weather, geopolitical events or fuel prices. They can, however, control how they respond. The most resilient supply chains tend to have flexibility built into them. That could mean allowing realistic transit times, reviewing alternative ports and routes, maintaining good communication with suppliers and customers, and understanding which shipments are genuinely time-critical.
It can also mean having access to different transport options.
Sea freight remains an excellent choice for many international shipments, particularly where cost is more important than speed. But air freight, road freight, express services or alternative sea routes may sometimes provide a better solution when circumstances change. The right choice depends on the goods, destination, timescale and budget.
How Hawley Logistics can help
At Hawley Logistics, we understand that international freight does not always go exactly according to plan.
Our role is not simply to arrange transportation. It is to help businesses navigate the practical challenges involved in moving goods internationally and find solutions when circumstances change. Hawley can support businesses with sea freight, air freight, road freight, UK haulage and express delivery, giving customers options when their original transport plan is no longer the most suitable one.
For businesses importing from the Far East, Hawley has a dedicated agent in China and can help manage shipments from the factory through to the UK warehouse. We can also assist with customs clearance at UK maritime ports and the documentation involved in international freight, helping businesses avoid unnecessary delays when their goods arrive in the UK. The benefit of working with an experienced freight forwarder is having someone who can look beyond one part of the journey.
If a vessel is delayed, is there another sailing?
If a route becomes less attractive, is there an alternative?
If goods are urgently required, would air freight make sense for part of the shipment?
If a container arrives in the UK, can the onward haulage be arranged efficiently?
These are the practical questions that can make a difference when global freight conditions are changing.
Keeping your supply chain moving
There is no single reason why international freight is becoming more difficult to predict. It is the combination of pressures.
Weather can disrupt ports. Congestion can affect vessel schedules. Container imbalances can make equipment harder to secure. Blank sailings can change planned departure dates. Fuel costs can affect freight rates. Geopolitical events can change shipping routes. Tariffs and customs rules can alter the cost of importing. Haulage availability can affect the final leg of the journey.
And increasingly, cybersecurity is another consideration for a logistics industry that relies more heavily on connected digital systems. For UK businesses, the answer is not necessarily to move away from international trade or sea freight. It is to plan with greater flexibility and make sure there is experienced support behind the logistics.
Global freight may remain unpredictable, but that does not mean your supply chain has to be unprepared.
Need help with your international freight?
Hawley Logistics can help you find the right solution for your imports, exports and wider supply chain requirements.
Call 01706 826322 or email info@hawleylogistics.co.uk to discuss your requirements.
